In 2023, the EU introduced ReFuelEU Aviation, a SAFs uptake mandate with progressively increasing minimum SAF targets – including sub-targets for synthetic jet fuels – until 2050. Fuel consumption is expected to rise by 50% in 2050, relative to 2019. This will be accompanied by an exponential growth in the share of SAFs, both bio- and synthetic, by 2050 from current levels.
Our new technical report analyzes the feasibility of meeting this regulation’s SAF targets by 2050. The main findings from this analysis are:
✅To meet ReFuelEU Aviation’s minimum targets, ~50 Mt of SAFs (up from current maximum production capacity of 0.24 Mtoe/year) will be needed in 2050.Â
✅Shifting 35% of the EU’s current biodiesel capacity would be enough to meet the 2030 biojet fuel target. However, by 2050, additional capacity needs to be installed to produce the 25 Mt of biojet fuel required.
✅Synthetic jet fuel needs by 2050 will be 25 Mt, but these fuels are energy-intensive to produce and in 2050 will consume 13.2 Mt of green hydrogen, which is 30% greater that today’s entire EU hydrogen demand of ~9 Mt/year, still mostly produced from fossil fuels.
✅It is most likely that demand for biojet fuel past 2030 will have to rely on both EU production and imports, with a heavier reliance on imports in the longer term. However, feedstock restrictions, cross-sectoral competition within the EU, and global competition for liquid biofuels create uncertainty regarding the amount of biojet fuels the EU will be able to produce and import to help meet its needs until 2050.
✅A massive scale-up in clean electricity will be required, as an additional 872 TWh of renewable electricity will be needed to meet the 2050 minimum synthetic jet fuel sub-target if these fuels are to be produced in the EU. This 872 TWh is equivalent to 31% of the current production capacity and 16.5% of the EU’s total projected production in 2050, up from the minimal electricity required by the aviation sector today.
✅Around 80-90% of the clean electricity required to produce synthetic jet fuels is needed to run the electrolyzers for green hydrogen production. To minimize the lifecycle GHG emissions of the synthetic jet fuel produced, hydrogen must be produced sustainably, via electrolysis using clean sources of electricity. This makes the feasibility of producing synthetic jet fuels at the necessary amounts a question of renewable electricity availability.
Find the complete report here!
A big thanks to our reviewers Matteo Mirolo (Breakthrough Energy ), Martin Roeb (German Aerospace Center (DLR)), and Ghassan Wakim (Clean Air Task Force).